Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts to $71 and $67 per barrel, up from $66 and $62, citing prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has intensified since February 28, pushing Brent up more than 36% and WTI about 39%, with both benchmarks briefly topping $119, their highest levels since mid‑2022.

Goldman analysts now assume 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz flows at 10% of normal, followed by a 30‑day gradual recovery, compared with an earlier 10‑day expectation. The bank projects Brent to average $98 per barrel in March and April before falling to $71 by the fourth quarter, while an upside scenario with a month‑long disruption would lift the March‑April average to $110 before easing to $76.29. Spot prices could exceed the 2008 peak of $147 if flows remain depressed through March. In its models, Goldman incorporated a global policy response that includes 254 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserve releases and 31 million barrels of Russian crude draws, reducing the impact on commercial inventories by nearly 50%. The International Energy Agency agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles, with the U.S. contributing the majority. Goldman’s base case assumes a logistical limit of 3 million barrels per day on OECD SPR draws and a four‑week phase‑out of releases through early June, when WTI prices are expected to moderate to the low $70s.

"Spot prices are likely to exceed their 2008 peak of $147 if flows remain depressed through March," the analysts added. "Goldman analysts in a note on Thursday said they now assume 21 days of low Strait of Hormuz oil flows at 10% of normal levels followed by a 30‑day gradual recovery, compared with their earlier expectation of a 10‑day disruption." "Goldman incorporated a global policy response in its models wherein 254 million barrels of actual global strategic petroleum reserve releases and 31 million barrels of draws in Russian crude reduce the hit to global commercial oil inventories by nearly 50%," the report noted.

With the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain constrained for several weeks, oil producers may continue to curtail output, while strategic reserve releases and OECD draw limits could temper price spikes, suggesting a gradual stabilization of markets into the fourth quarter.