JP Morgan has warned that oil prices could climb above $150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through mid‑May, a scenario that would tighten supply and raise costs for drilling operations worldwide.

The benchmark U.S. crude, WTI, closed at $111.50 per barrel, surpassing Brent, which settled at $109, as markets paused for Good Friday. The surge follows a sharp rise in global oil demand and the collapse of vessel traffic through the chokepoint since early March.

In its note, JP Morgan projects near‑term prices of $120‑$130 per barrel, but a prolonged closure could push prices beyond $150. The bank also noted that the Strait carries about 20% of daily global oil and LNG. Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh warned that supply chains would need three to six months to normalize even if traffic resumed. FGE NexantECA analysts said prices could jump to $200 per barrel or higher if the Strait stays near‑closed for another six weeks, while Macquarie Group warned of a record $200 if the conflict drags into the second quarter.

Yvette Cooper, the UK Foreign Secretary, said the virtual meeting aimed to send clear and coordinated messages to Iran to permit unimpeded transit passage and reject tolls on vessels. June Goh added that the global oil production and refining supply chains would take at least three to six months to normalize to pre‑war levels. Analysts from FGE NexantECA and Macquarie Group warned that prices could reach $200 per barrel under sustained disruptions.

If the Strait reopens, prices are likely to fall toward the $120‑$130 range, easing pressure on drilling budgets. However, a continued bottleneck would keep costs elevated, prompting operators to accelerate maintenance shutdowns and seek alternative supply routes. Market participants should monitor diplomatic developments closely, as any shift could quickly alter the price trajectory.