Oil prices held steady as the market weighed the possibility of U.S. sales of seized Venezuelan crude against fresh supply concerns from the Black Sea. The slight uptick in Brent and WTI reflects a balance between bearish fundamentals and geopolitical volatility.

The backdrop is a complex mix of U.S. sanctions, a potential release of Venezuelan oil, and recent Russian‑Ukrainian hostilities that have damaged port infrastructure and vessels, raising fears of supply disruptions.

Brent futures rose 6 cents to $62.13 a barrel by 12:21 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 2 cents to $58.03. Prices had risen more than 2% on Monday, marking the biggest daily gain for Brent in two months and the largest WTI climb since November 14. Barclays notes that the oil surplus will shrink to only 700,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, tightening the market if disruptions persist.

Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said the market appears to be wrestling between oversupplied bearish factors and the latest supply concerns from the U.S. blockade reducing Venezuelan loadings and exports, as well as Russia and Ukraine trading blows to vessels and ports late on Monday. Barclays added that oil markets are expected to remain well supplied in the first half of 2026, but the surplus will shrink to 700,000 barrels per day in Q4 2026 and prolonged disruption could tighten the market further. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. might keep or sell the oil seized off the coast of Venezuela, part of a blockade of oil tankers under sanctions.

With the first half of 2026 projected to remain well supplied, operators can plan for a gradual tightening of the market in the fourth quarter. The potential release of Venezuelan crude could offset some of the Black Sea disruption, but continued vigilance is advised as geopolitical tensions persist.