ترامب urged الهند to halt Russian oil imports, a move that could slash روسيا's seaborne revenue and force Moscow to slash prices to find new buyers.

In the midst of stalled Ukraine peace talks and a tightening sanctions regime, روسيا is already feeling the squeeze. The Kremlin's budget shows a deficit as oil discounts widen and buyers grow wary of sanctioned crude.

Russian oil imports into الهند dropped 22% to 1.38 مليون برميل يوميا in December, the lowest since January 2023, reducing روسيا's share of Indian imports to 27.4% while OPEC rose to 53.2%. The peak of 2 مليون bpd in June 2025 has since fallen sharply. روسيا's total exports stood at 4.91 مليون bpd in December, with الصين buying 2.3 مليون bpd. Analysts note that a further reduction would be "meaningful" because China has limited capacity to absorb sanctioned crude. Vortexa consultant David Wech said the pressure on Russia is increasing as fewer buyers are willing to take the risk. An analyst at الجامعة المالية الروسية الحكومية, Igor Yushkov, warned that output and export cuts would lead to an oil shortage, suggesting that a full U.S. ban would backfire on Moscow by driving up prices.

Alexandra Hermann of Oxford Economics noted that U.S. crude cannot replace Russian oil on a like-for-like basis due to quality differences, and that Venezuela's exports are too small to matter. Yushkov added that crude from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq are more likely candidates to substitute Russian oil, though deep discounts may still make Russian crude difficult to resist for Indian buyers.

Looking ahead, الهند is expected to cut Russian imports further in April when a top refiner, Nayara, conducts a one-month maintenance at its 400,000 bpd plant. Volumes beyond April will hinge on the outcome of Russia-Ukraine peace talks and الهند's broader stance. If the U.S. succeeds, Moscow may be forced to redirect flows to China at lower prices, potentially curbing production and reshaping global supply chains.