Allianz Trade research warns that the UK faces a higher risk of jet‑fuel shortages than other European markets, a finding that could spell flight cancellations for summer holidaymakers.
The research highlights the UK's heavy reliance on imported kerosene from countries outside the Middle East, leaving it "particularly vulnerable" to supply shocks along key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
The study identified the UK, Germany, France and Italy as having the largest shortfalls, underscoring the region's dependence on external refining hubs. Lufthansa Group has already announced it will cancel 20,000 flights over the next six months, while Virgin Atlantic added a fuel surcharge and British Airways warned of pricing adjustments.
Michael O'Leary, the chief executive of Ryanair, said rivals were "desperately" searching for flights to cancel, and Airlines UK stated that UK airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.
Ministers are expected to warn Britons that flight cancellations could disrupt summer holiday plans, with reports suggesting the government may urge citizens to consider staycations.
Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, is set to tell Brits that there could be flight cancellations this year as she will talk up staycations, according to The Times.
Her warnings will follow a prompt by Sir Keir Starmer that people would have to consider changing "where they go on holiday".
Trade experts have warned that the supply of kerosene was set to be hit by disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz.
The worst effects of flight disruption could come in late June and July, near the peak of summer travel.
Some airlines have reportedly said that the UK could escape some of the worst effects of jet fuel shortages due to obtaining supplies from other countries.
European aviation activity is indirectly exposed not only to global oil price dynamics but also to geopolitical and logistical risks along key supply routes, reinforcing the region's dependence on external refining hubs for a fuel that is essential to long-haul connectivity.
"The UK, Germany, France, and Italy show the largest shortfalls, underscoring their reliance on external supply to meet aviation demand," trade experts said.
"European aviation activity is indirectly exposed not only to global oil price dynamics but also to geopolitical and logistical risks along key supply routes, reinforcing the region's dependence on external refining hubs for a fuel that is essential to long-haul connectivity."
