Brazil posted a record trade surplus of $14.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, a 47.6% increase over the same period in 2025, largely thanks to higher oil prices. Crude oil exports climbed 31% year‑over‑year to $12.56 billion . China accounted for 57% of the exports, or $7.2 billion, and 65% of the crude shipped in March alone. Exports to the United States fell 40% to just $632 million, while overall exports rose 7.1% to $82.3 billion and imports edged up 1.3% to $76.9 billion. Defense exports more than doubled to $931 million, with buyers including Germany , Bulgaria , United Arab Emirates , the United States and Portugal . The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services revised its 2026 trade projection to a $72.1 billion surplus, a 5.9% increase from the previous estimate. Brazil imports roughly 85% of its fertilizers, 30% of urea from the Persian Gulf and 50% of fertilizer imports transit the Strait of Hormuz; urea prices jumped 35% as a result of the conflict‑related shipping restrictions. The Central Bank cut rates 25 basis points to 14.75% to temper inflation. While high oil prices bolster government revenue, they also fuel domestic inflation. The disruption of fertilizer supply through the Strait of Hormuz has raised costs for the agribusiness sector, threatening the current planting season and adding pressure to Brazil’s inflation outlook.