Citi has raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast, citing continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now projects average prices of $110 for Q2, $95 for Q3 and $80 for Q4, with a $150 peak if the corridor remains closed through June. The forecast follows stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks and persistent supply constraints that have tightened global oil supplies. Despite recent price rises, analysts note that inventory releases and IEA stockpile draws have moderated the impact. The base‑case scenario carries a 50% probability, while a 30% bull‑case scenario assumes disruptions through June, pushing Brent to $150 and averaging $130 in Q2 and Q3 before easing to $100 in Q4. Citi also outlined a super‑bull scenario in which the Strait stays closed beyond June, implying severe implications for oil spending relative to GDP. Citi said, "With both sides still far apart on their red lines, we see the risks surrounding our bullish near term and our 2H'26 central case oil price forecasts as skewed to the upside." It also noted that oil prices would need to rise far beyond current levels to match past peaks in oil spending relative to GDP, with U.S. all‑in product prices near $280 a barrel and global prices around $220, implying Brent above $160-$180. Brent crude futures rose to $106.68 a barrel by 0229 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood at $95.52.