Lead Goldman Sachs analysts say that 14.5 million barrels per day of lost Middle East production could return quickly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but they warn that storage limits and long shut‑ins may slow the rebound. Context The bank's view comes as the war in the region has kept the Strait closed, cutting off a major export route for Gulf oil and forcing many fields to shut wells as a precaution rather than due to physical damage. Key Data According to the analysts, the 14.5 million barrels per day lost represents 57% of the Middle East's pre-war production rate. Storage capacity has dropped by about 130 million barrels, roughly half of the region's total. Other forecasters project that 70% of the lost output could resume within three months of hostilities ending, while 88% see a six-month window for the bulk of pre-war barrels. Quotes The analysts noted that "long shut-ins lead to a decline in flow rates, and production recovery requires a more complex and time-consuming process." They also said that "over half of the Middle East's total pre-war production rate, or 57%, to be more precise." Other forecasters added that "70% of the oil production that was lost as a result of the war could resume within three months of the end of hostilities," and that "88% see a less optimistic period of six months for the return of the bulk of pre-war barrels." Outlook If the conflict ends soon, the spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could help lift output to pre-war levels within months, but the bank cautions that the pace will depend on how quickly storage can be rebuilt and wells restarted.