Goldman Sachs has raised its outlook for Brent crude to an average of $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and West Texas Intermediate to $83 per barrel. The upgrade comes as Brent trades at $106.68 and WTI at $95.35, with negotiations between Iran and the United States remaining on hold. The bank's analysts noted that economic risks are larger than the crude base case alone suggests, citing net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, product shortages, and the unprecedented scale of the shock. They stated, "The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, product shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock." The team expects global demand for oil to decline by 1.7 million barrels daily over the current quarter and by some 100,000 barrels daily over 2026 compared to 2025. Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer. The bank has estimated lost production in the Middle East at 14.5 million barrels daily as of this month. Meanwhile, ING commodity analysts wrote earlier today that "The lack of progress [on peace talks] means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels. There's little alternative to fill a roughly 13m b/d shortfall." Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey also noted, "In the short term, inventories help to fill the gap, whether commercial or strategic reserves. Clearly, the longer this persists, the more demand destruction we will need to see. To see further demand destruction, prices will need to move higher."