HSBC says the United Arab Emirates' planned exit from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance in May 2026 will not shift global oil supply immediately. The Gulf's crude exports remain constrained by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since late February. The UAE, one of OPEC's largest producers, announced its departure from both OPEC and OPEC+, a move that could weaken the group's supply discipline and price-management ability over time. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which carries crude to the port of Fujairah and bypasses Hormuz, has a capacity of up to about 1.8 million barrels per day and is likely operating at or near full utilization. Once shipping access through Hormuz is restored, the UAE will no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually raise output. HSBC estimates ADNOC could lift production to more than 4.5 million barrels per day, compared with an OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million barrels per day for the May 2026 period. HSBC said any increase in supply is expected to be phased in over 12 to 18 months rather than delivered immediately, in line with ADNOC 's stated intention to raise output gradually and according to demand and market conditions. The bank also noted that additional UAE barrels would help rebuild depleted global oil inventories after recent draws. It warned that the UAE's expanding production capacity and a $150 billion programme through 2030 suggest an intention to monetise reserves with fewer output constraints. Over the longer term, HSBC cautions that the UAE's exit could undermine OPEC+ cohesion and credibility, making supply management more difficult to enforce. The loss of UAE participation may raise the risk of compliance slippage among remaining members, potentially leaving OPEC+ vulnerable to price volatility during periods of softer demand or rising non-OPEC supply.