The IEA has warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 500 million barrels of oil from the market, costing the world $50 billion in lost supply. The Middle East war has tightened global oil markets, with production down by over 10 million bpd and inventories falling sharply. According to Kpler , cumulative crude and condensate supply losses in the Middle East reached 430 million barrels by April 10, and rose to 500 million barrels by the end of the seventh week, a revenue loss of about $50 billion at an average price of $100 per barrel. The IEA noted a 10.1 million bpd drop in global supply, bringing total supply to 97 million bpd in March, and observed that global inventories fell by 85 million barrels, with 205 million barrels outside the Middle East drawn down at a rate of 2.7 million bpd. Wood Mackenzie estimates that 11 million bpd of upstream production shut-in across the Middle East can only be restored when export logistics normalize with an open Strait of Hormuz, and that Iraq may need 6 to 9 months to reach prior production levels. The IEA said that "Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy," said Fatih Birol, executive director of the agency. Kpler analysts noted that the shift follows the exhaustion of earlier supply buffers and peaks in regional shut-ins, and that continued constraints on flows via the Strait of Hormuz suggest further inventory pressure ahead, reinforcing a tightening physical balance. Birol warned that if the Strait is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices. Even if the Strait reopens, recovery could take months to years, keeping oil markets volatile and prices under upward pressure. Operators should anticipate prolonged supply constraints and plan for higher input costs as the region works to restore upstream production and LNG output, which could take up to five years for Qatar's Ras Laffan complex.