The head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) , Philip Mshelbila, warned that the Iran conflict could turn the current short-term gas demand loss into a structural shock, potentially derailing the 2026 market glut that was expected to shift the sector into oversupply. Speaking at the Invest in African Energy conference in Paris, Mshelbila noted that if the conflict ended today, the world would recover in six months to a year. However, if the conflict persists for six months, the knee-jerk changes currently being seen could become structural. Since the Middle East crisis began at the end of February, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, according to Kpler data – the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. Countries dependent upon Gulf supplies have reacted by switching to burning coal and accelerating the switch to renewables. Mshelbila said that 2026 had been meant to be a pivotal year for the sector, with a tight global gas market flipping into oversupply. "Clearly this conflict has done something to that, and it's not yet clear whether it's just a delay, or whether in fact that glut will ever come," he said. Addressing an audience including African energy ministers, Mshelbila said African gas producers were missing an opportunity to step in and fill the supply gap caused by Middle East outages and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. "Sadly while some African countries have excess capacity in both LNG and pipeline gas, the majority of them if not all are not producing at full capacity," he said. "If you look at the export pipelines to Europe, from Algeria or from Libya, not one of them is full." As a result, North American producers are instead capturing the European and Asian gas markets, Mshelbila said. "Normally in a situation of crisis this is an opportunity: Fill it up! Seize the market! Unfortunately we are missing out, because we don't have the upstream molecules to fill the infrastructure," he said. "The reserves are there, but they are still in the ground." (Reporting by America Hernandez; Editing by Makini Brice, Sudip Kar-Gupta, and Joe Bavier)