Mercuria warned that the Gulf blockade and smelter force majeure declarations are triggering the largest aluminum supply shock since 2000, potentially creating a 2 million-ton deficit by year-end. This disruption threatens global supply chains for everything from aircraft to power infrastructure, underscoring the sector's vulnerability to geopolitical events. The Gulf region accounts for 9% of global aluminum supply, and recent force majeure declarations by major smelters combined with a Hormuz chokepoint blockade have left the market scrambling for inventory. Analysts at Mercuria , JPMorgan and Goldman have all sounded alarms about a deepening supply shock. Mercuria estimates the market could face at least a 2 million-ton deficit by the end of the year, compared with about 1.5 million tons of visible inventory and just over 3 million tons of total global stock, including non-visible units. Prices have already surged to a four-year high. The analyst said, "The scale of the supply shock we're seeing in the aluminum market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era," Nick Snowdon, a commodities analyst at Mercuria , told Reuters. James McGeoch, a commodity specialist at Goldman , warned, "Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock." JPMorgan analysts added, "The aluminum market is descending into a black hole," describing a serious and prolonged supply outage. With the most exposed supply chains in the US and Europe, both regions rely heavily on Middle Eastern aluminum imports and already have low stockpiles. The market may see price volatility as inventories dwindle, but traders expect that shipping lanes will gradually reopen and that alternative sourcing could mitigate the impact. The industry should prepare for potential supply constraints by diversifying suppliers and building strategic stockpiles.