Trafigura Group 's chief economist Saad Rahim warned that the Iran war could cut up to 1.5 billion barrels of oil supply. The warning highlights how current oil prices fail to capture the true extent of the supply shock. Context Since the conflict began, Brent futures have swung from nearly $120 to about $95 a barrel, reflecting heightened volatility as markets grapple with the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Key Data Trafigura Group 's Rahim said the loss could reach 1.5 billion barrels if the war continues, noting that the market "can't actually get its head around it." Gunvor Group analyst Frederic Lasserre warned that if the war persists for another month, oil markets will hit tank bottoms. Energy Aspects co-founder Amrita Sen estimated that 450 million barrels of clean products could be lost, assuming a 50 percent reopening of Hormuz next month. The loss of 450 million barrels of gasoline and other refined products could force drilling operators to adjust output and logistics. Quotes Rahim said, "The scale seems to be something where the market can't actually get its head around it." Lasserre added that "if the war persists for another month, oil markets will hit tank bottoms." Sen noted that "it's possible that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will never return to pre-war levels." Outlook Should a peace deal materialize, supply flows may gradually recover, but analysts warn that the disruption could permanently reshape global oil transport routes, prompting drilling and rig managers to plan for longer-term adjustments.