S&P Global Energy reduced its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 700,000 barrels per day, citing disruptions from the U.S.–Iran conflict. Consultant Ethan Ng stated that the war has tightened supply lines from the Middle East and triggered a steep decline in demand across the region and in Asia during the second quarter. Under the revised outlook, global oil demand growth is expected to shrink to 400,000 bpd, compared with the pre-war projection of 1.1 million bpd. The adjustment also highlights that 178 refineries—roughly 40% of the world's refining capacity—are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Physical Brent prices have been capped by a substantial drawdown of strategic petroleum reserves by countries such as Japan and South Korea, which are managing fuel shortages. Diesel and jet fuel have experienced the largest price impacts.