UAE has announced its exit from OPEC , a move that will sharply reduce the cartel’s influence over the oil market and could spark a price war once Gulf producers seek to regain market share after the Iran war ends. The 65‑year‑old producer group, which now has 12 members, has long relied on joint output controls to manage supply. Its share of global production has fallen from roughly 50% in the 1970s to about 30% today, while non‑OPEC producers such as the U.S., Canada and Brazil have surged. In February, UAE was the fourth‑largest producer after Saudi Arabia , Iran and Iraq , accounting for about 12% of total output. The country has a capacity of around 4.85 million barrels per day and aims to lift that to 5 million bpd by 2027, ambitions that clash with OPEC’s output curbs. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has trapped more than 13 million bpd of oil—roughly 13% of global supplies—and about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas flows, forcing producers to shut in close to 10 million bpd. According to the UAE Energy Minister, the decision was driven by the need to meet rising global energy demand, but the freedom to ramp up production without constraints was also a powerful motive. The move comes at a time when the Gulf’s oil and gas exports have been largely paralysed for two months. With the UAE’s exit, OPEC may lose further cohesion, and other members could question the value of limiting output. Once the Iran war subsides, the new dynamic could open the door to a bitter struggle for market share among OPEC+, the UAE and the U.S., potentially triggering a sharp drop in oil prices and years of turbulence. The opinions expressed here are those of Ron Bousso, a columnist for Reuters.