UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance effective May 1, a move that could alter global supply dynamics once the Strait of Hormuz crisis subsides. OPEC and OPEC+ have long managed production quotas to stabilize prices. UAE has historically clashed with its peers over output limits while pursuing a 5 million-bpd capacity target by 2027. According to Energy Aspects , the exit will not change OPEC's ability to influence prices. The UAE's 3-day notice and its claim to use more spare capacity are consistent with its long-standing grievances over lower-than-deserved quotas. Analysts note that any ramp-up from the UAE, once the crisis ends, would not be too much above what Abu Dhabi was pumping before the war. Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects , said the exit would not alter OPEC's price-discipline role. ING's commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that the UAE's exit is a "big blow to the group, though it will have little impact on the market in the short term amid ongoing supply disruptions." They added that "in the medium to longer term, it means more supply for the market." Sen also noted that the UAE will remain a "responsible" producer responding to market fundamentals. With the Strait of Hormuz crisis expected to resolve, Gulf producers, including the UAE, are likely to ramp up output to capacity, potentially adding significant supply to the market and testing OPEC's price-discipline mechanisms.