Baker Hughes reported that U.S. oil and natural gas rigs fell to 543 in the week to April 17, the lowest since late March, marking the second consecutive week of declines. The drop signals a shift in capital allocation as firms prioritize debt repayment and shareholder returns over new drilling activity. The rig count, a leading indicator of future production, slipped by two units, a 7% year‑over‑year decline, reflecting broader market softness amid falling oil prices and a focus on cost discipline. Oil rigs dropped by one to 410, the lowest since late March, while gas rigs fell by two to 125, the lowest since January. Miscellaneous rigs edged up by one to eight. The overall count fell 42 rigs, or 7% below the same period last year. In 2025, the rig count is expected to decline by about 7%, compared with a 5% drop in 2024 and a 20% fall in 2023. TD Cowen projects that exploration and production companies will cut capital expenditures by roughly 1% in 2026 versus 2025, following a 4% decline in 2025 and flat spending in 2024. According to EIA , crude output is projected to slide from a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.5 million bpd in 2026, even as West Texas Intermediate spot prices are expected to rise for the first time in four years. The agency also forecasts gas output to rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 109.6 bcfd in 2026, with Henry Hub prices climbing about 4% in 2026.