U.S. oil executives anticipate a boost in domestic output as the Iran conflict disrupts global supply chains, according to a Dallas Fed survey. Context The survey, conducted from April 15 to 20, gathered responses from 120 oil and gas companies, including 78 exploration and production firms and 42 oilfield services providers, reflecting a broad industry perspective. Key Data Forty‑three percent of respondents forecast a rise of up to 250,000 barrels per day in U.S. crude production this year, a figure that contrasts with the Energy Information Administration’s projection of 13.51 million barrels per day for 2026, down from 13.58 million last year. Two‑thirds of the firms expect at least 90 percent of Gulf production that has been shut to return to the market. When asked about traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, 20 percent said normal levels would resume by next month, 39 percent by August, and the remainder by November or later. Shipping costs from the Gulf are expected to climb, with more than a third of respondents projecting a jump of $2 to $4 per barrel. The survey also captured the impact of the 45‑day period when West Texas Intermediate traded above $75 per barrel, prompting smaller operators to add rigs and larger independents to accelerate drilling schedules. Quotes "The price of oil will fall back to the $65 a barrel level very quickly once this conflict settles down," an exploration and production executive said. "In response to the roughly 45 days of West Texas Intermediate over $75 per barrel, we are hearing increased talk of smaller operators adding rigs. We are also seeing larger independent operators move up drilling schedules," an oilfield services firm executive said. Outlook With the war’s persistence, U.S. producers are poised to fill the supply gap, potentially raising output by up to a quarter‑million barrels per day and easing Gulf market constraints, while higher shipping costs and accelerated drilling activity signal a more active drilling environment in the coming months.