ConocoPhillips trimmed its 2026 production guidance after Iranian attacks on the QatarEnergy LNG export plant, which has knocked out about a sixth of Qatar's LNG capacity worth roughly $20 billion a year. The company said the disruption, coupled with higher royalty rates at its Surmont oil sands project in Canada, forced it to exclude Qatar volumes from its near-term outlook.
The attacks have halted operations at the plant, with repairs expected to take three to five years. ConocoPhillips' investments in Qatar, standing at about $1.8 billion as of March 31, accounted for 4% of the company's total production in 2025.
ConocoPhillips now expects 2026 production to be between 2.29 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and 2.325 million barrels, down from its previous forecast of 2.33 million to 2.36 million. Current-quarter production is projected at 2.185 million to 2.215 million. The company said the annual outlook reflects a reduction of about 20,000 boed linked to the exclusion of Qatar volumes, and another 15,000 boed impact from higher royalty rates. Capital expenditures are now forecast at $12 billion to $12.5 billion, up from a prior $12 billion.
Capital One Securities analyst Phillips Johnston said the lower production outlook "comes as no surprise … but we don't think investors were anticipating a $250 million increase to the (capital) budget." Shares of the company fell nearly 3% in morning trading, and its average realized prices dropped 6% to $50.36 per barrel of oil equivalent during the first quarter.
ConocoPhillips reported net income of $2.18 billion, or $1.78 per share, for the three months ended March 31, down from $2.85 billion, or $2.23 per share, a year earlier.
